Why Is the Don’t Pass Bet Better than the Pass Bet in Craps?

This question has a simple answer. The don’t pass bet has a lower house advantage than the pass bet. If you’re comparing craps wagers by how likely they are to pay off, don’t pass bets are technically better than pass line bets.

Look at the house edge on various bets in craps. Poke around on that site long enough and you’ll see that the house edge on pass line bets is around 1.41%, while don’t pass bets give the casino a 1.36% edge.

Pass Bet Details
Pass is the fundamental wager in the game of craps. Bettors who place a Pass bet are hoping that the shooter will roll a 7 or 11 on the come out roll. Otherwise, if the shooter rolls a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10, a point is established and play continues. Once that point is set, pass bettors are hoping that number will appear again before a 7. The worst possible result for pass bettors is a 2, 3, or 12 – when this number appears on the come out roll, everyone who bets with the shooter is a loser.

Don’t Pass Bet Details
Don’t pass bets are the opposite of pass bets. Don’t pass bettors are hoping the shooter rolls a 2, 3, or 12 on the come-out roll. If that doesn’t happen, don’t pass bettors are hoping that a 7 appears before the established point.

Understand that both of these wagers pay even money. Since they pay the same, but one has better odds than the other, you must be thinking: why do people place pass line bets at all?

Three important twists to the way the game is played explain why.

Right vs. Wrong Craps Bets
Spend any time reading up on craps and you’ll come across these phrases – “right bettors” and “wrong bettors.” Understand that don’t pass bets are literally the opposite of pass line bets. Betting on the pass line means betting WITH the shooter, while laying don’t pass bets means betting AGAINST the shooter.

Gamblers who bet with the shooter are called “right” bettors, while those lay wagers against the shooter are called “wrong” bettors. Believe it or not, a lot of people prefer to bet with the shooter (even at a slight disadvantage) than bet on the wrong side.

A don’t pass bet is a bet that the shooter will “seven out” before the point number reappears. Peer pressure and gambling tradition imply that you’d be better off betting with the shooter. It’s a stroke of genius on the part of casinos, because they’re gently pressuring customers to take less-advantageous bets.

“Betting to Lose”
Another reason commonly cited in discussions about pass vs. don’t pass bets – the idea that people don’t like “betting to lose.” What’s that mean?

Imagine the game of craps if everybody switched over to better don’t pass. The dice would be switching hands back and forth – losing would be the same as winning used to be. Wrong bettors are ignoring the appeal of the hot shooter, which is by far one of the most exhilarating things you can see on the casino floor. Once a shooter “gets hot,” customers start increasing their bets, the money starts flowing, and a crowd forms. People who wager on the don’t pass line are cut out of that excitement altogether. If “don’t pass” became the new “pass,” the game itself would change fundamentally.

Low Difference in House Edge
Let’s be honest – the difference in edge between don’t pass and pass is very small. Craps appeals to a certain kind of bettor, one that is not likely to get all that excited about an additional 0.5% advantage. Sports bettors and blackjack players? Absolutely. Craps players? They’re not really known for their ability to slow down and calculate.

The fact that the difference in the casino’s advantage is so low is no doubt another factor in the popularity of the pass line. Let’s say you’re betting $5 per round and seeing 100 outcomes an hour. If you place only pass line bets, your expected losses are around $7 an hour. If you place only don’t pass bets, your expected losses are $6.80 an hour. To most people, betting with the shooter is totally worth that extra $0.20 an hour, just to protect them from the scorn of the rest of the table.

Those are all pretty powerful reasons to avoid don’t pass bets. But the fact remains – most people simply don’t want to bet against the shooter.

And now for a little extra wisdom – there’s nothing at all wrong with betting against the shooter. No casino employee will tell you that you can’t bet the “wrong way.” No dealer will kick you out of the game, and no other players are allowed to do anything to you just because you’re betting against them. What they can do is make your life a bit miserable – give you the cold shoulder, etc.

This is why you’ll often see wrong bettors sitting off to themselves away from the crowd betting with the shooter. All they’re really doing is taking the better bet – the one with the better chances of winning. But the culture of the game is such that a “wrong” bettor is likely to get a little guff from the rest of the table.

NBA Playoff Odds, Preview, and Predictions for April 27, 2018

After epic performances by LeBron James and Russell Westbrook in Game 5 of their respective best-of-seven first-round series, their teams enter April 27th with different goals in mind.

LeBron James’ spectacular game-saving block and game-winning three-pointer on Wednesday gave the Cleveland Cavaliers their first lead of their first-round series at 3-2. The Cavs hope to get an encore from King James on Friday as they try to eliminate the Indiana Pacers in Indiana.

While Cleveland is trying to move on to the next round, the Oklahoma City Thunder are looking to equalize their own best-of-seven first-round series against the Utah Jazz. The Thunder are riding high on Russell Westbrook’s 45-point effort during their Game 5 victory where they overcame a 25-point third-quarter deficit.

Here are the odds, previews, and our predictions for the NBA Playoff games on April 27, 2018.

Cavs at Pacers – Game 6
Cavs +105, Pacers -125)

LeBron James was simply breathtaking in Game 5, doing everything on the court for the Cleveland Cavaliers. Another monster night for the King, another victory for his Cavs. Really, Cleveland’s success in this series isn’t hard to decode. It’s just two words: King James.

James has scored at least 32 points in his team’s three victories, averaging 40.67 points per game in those games. Meanwhile, he’s averaged just 26 points per game in Cleveland’s two losses to Indiana this series. Save for Game 1, James’ FG attempts have almost been the same in the last four games. The only difference is that he’s shot above 54.5% during victories but not more than 45.5%.

Victor Oladipo’s playoff average is 3 points off his regular-season scoring average. That’s not too bad. But what is worrying is that Oladipo’s point output has steadily decreased from game to game: 32 to 22 to 18 to 17 to 12. Like James in Cleveland, Indiana’s regular-season success was because of Oladipo flourishing in their offense. If they want to see a Game 7, Oladipo has to pick up the pace. It’s now or never for the Pacers.

Both teams have won once each in the other team’s home court, so that won’t be too much of a factor in Game 6, as it hasn’t been all series long. Save for the Game 1 blowout, the average winning margin in this series (Games 2-5) has only been just four points, with Games 2, 3, and 5 decided by just one possession.

The Cavs and LeBron have the momentum here, but given how close the series has been despite LeBron’s superhuman effort, the Pacers aren’t goners yet. He may be the best today, but you can’t expect LeBron to put up the same numbers in Game 6 (or else he’s Superman). Meanwhile, Oladipo is due for an explosion after three straight off nights, and yes, Cleveland is winless in Indiana in four tries dating back to the regular season.

7 Things You Never Knew About Casinos

Americans love gambling. We spend billions of dollars every year at land-based casinos, from the high desert of Las Vegas to the riverboat casinos of the Mississippi Delta. Forty US states are home to at least one casino. Even conservative Texas has a casino within its borders.

The casino business has been booming for nearly 100 years. From its early days as a frontier distraction to the multi-billion dollar mega-businesses of today, casino gambling has enthralled Americans as long as it’s been available. But I bet you didn’t know all these cool facts about the casino business.

Read on for a fascinating look at how the betting industry really works.

1. Casinos lose money all the time
Sure, most players end up losing money. But you have to figure high cost of the property, staff, and complimentary items keep casinos from beating everyone. Of course those patrons who play very little or are accompanying real players make up a large portion of this group, but there are many players that are actually able to win over a long period of time. This group includes blackjack card counters, but the largest percentage is comprised of players who gamble just enough to qualify for freebies and complimentary giveaways like free rooms and meals.

2. They love winners
You might assume that the casino isn’t happy when someone cashes in a big jackpot. But that’s far from the truth. Think about it – do you want to play at a casino that never pays out big winnings or a casino that regularly advertises big prizes? Big wins are good for business, so don’t be surprised to see a bunch of smiles and glad-handing when the supervisor hands you a big progressive prize.

3. Card-counters are welcome … in Atlantic City
If you’re an advantage gambler of any type, you run the risk of getting kicked out of a casino in Las Vegas or most other parts of the country. Most casinos reserve the right to kick out anyone they suspect is counting cards or using other advantage techniques. But if you’re a card-counter and you want to use your skill freely, there is one place you’re welcome. Atlantic City is explicitly open to blackjack card-counters and other advantage bettors. How do they do it? They’ve adapted. For example, the rules for blackjack are altered to account for the impact of card counting tactics.

4. Think you’ve been ripped off? There’s an agency for that
Every legal casino in America is run by a regulatory agency. If you think you’ve been cheated, you can contact Gaming Control (or whatever agency runs the show where you were playing) and lodge a formal complaint. Just don’t use this service to whine about cold food or a broken elevator. Those particular complaints should be made to the casino’s manager, not to a government body meant to curtail casino cheating.

5. If you win big, you can ask for a check instead of cash or chips
This one surprised me – I’ve never seen it done before, and I’ve been in casinos plenty of times. Apparently, it’s perfectly acceptable to ask for a check if you have a decent-sized win. Basically, any hand-pay you get in Vegas or AC can be turned into a check, so long as you ask nicely and do it before you get your cash or chip pay-out. You can even get a combination pay-out, part in a check, part in cash, and part in chips. Remember – your casino is basically a service economy with you as its target. If you play a lot and talk sweetly to the employees, you can get pretty much whatever you want, within reason.

6. You need a current and valid photo ID on you pretty much at all times
Though some US casinos allow players in at age 18 (particularly in Alaska), the gambling age in pretty much every other US state is 21. To enforce that, the casino demands that all players have a valid photo ID on them at all time while on the floor. Don’t even try the old “Oops, I left my ID up in my room” trick. The casino can (and will) ask you to leave if you don’t have your ID on you.

7. Casinos have strict etiquette rules – including language restrictions
Contrary to the stereotype of the casino as a den of iniquity, gambling halls actually have pretty lengthy lists of rules and proper etiquette that you must follow. The quickest way to get a nasty look from your dealer or even a warning from the pit is to open your mouth and let one of those famous “four-letter words” slip out. My advice – act like you’re playing craps with your grandmother. You’ll be better off, and the other bettors around you will appreciate your kindness.